Do Plan and Action on a 3 to 6 months basis:
We do not know yet whether the effect of Corona will be short-run or long-run. But it is for sure the effect of the corona will not go away within the current lockdown period. Then what could be the approach from the business viewpoint?
It is always better to evaluate any situation, plan, and action on a 3 to 6 months basis. It helps to eliminate the effect of an extreme factor in the short run and we do not get confused by everyday news, frequent changes of events. On the other hand, it helps to keep away to get trapped from the long-run vision, plan, and expected changes that we are looking for. Moreover, 3 to 6 months plans help to do work break down structure and set and measure short term goal vs achievement.
Just for an example. We may think about three levels of the situation (Phase 1: 21 days to 35 days/ Phase 2: 35 days to 60 days plus/ Phase 3: 60 days to 180 days at least) as per the current data. You may have different opinions and thoughts. Just adjust as per your business SWOT analysis. But keep in mind we have to see the situation from a minimum 3 months period and maximum 6 months period. A mid-level garment manufacturer does not see any production goals within the next 15-day period (lockdown). S/He got order cancellation news, the factory closed, and office staffs are in quarantine. Most importantly there are no workers to run the factory. But maybe decision-makers may see possibilities within a 30 to 60 day period. The government’s restrictions may be a bit relaxed, the community may start accepting the risk of Coronavirus, few online retailers may place orders from Europe and the USA, protections against Covid-19 will increase, few workers may return to actions, financial institutions and subsidies may be available, the local market may open new opportunity as the festival is approaching. The same situation goes for schools, restaurants,s, and other service industries. Schools may check the possibilities online. Remember you may not get any bell-shaped curve here but remember nature follows systematic order and shape. This period will help to get unbiased estimates.
Think & Stay Motivated.
Three phases in the Next Six Months:
Three phases we may see in this Swing from the Business View Points. Keep it mind that Corona will not be fully wiped out and it will exist in our community. Hence, we must get ready.
Phase 1. (21 days to 35 days): Corona exists in the community. We are getting some discrete news related to corona-affected patients. Still, the numbers are not huge (maybe 30 to 60 as per media). We have not seen any patients close to family and even not in our community. People are beginning to stock up on essentials and cut auxiliary expenses like traveling, outside entertainment, etc. Organizations are running in temporary mode with limited resources. Hoping it will be overcome within this month. But daily labor, hawkers, street shoppers (manual van) will be seriously affected.
Phase 2. (35 days to 60 days plus). Covid-19 has spread in the community. Perhaps it exists all over the country. People are fully aware and worried. The government is taking restrictive actions. Here we will face labor shortages, price hikes on necessities. Demand for medical emergencies will increase. We will see a serious disruption between demand and supply. The first blow we will see in services in the industry like hotels, restaurants, national parks, entertainment places (cinema, theater), lawyers, dentists and even doctors, etc. More layoff declarations will be observed from this particular service industry. The manufacturing industry will be still in dilemma. They will face the question of How and When? Cash flow and fixed cost will be two serious factors. The initial reaction will be the cost cut, partial layoff, and searching for alternative markets and means of earnings. Perhaps Italy and Spain are going through the beginning of this phase -2.
Phase 3. (60 days to 180 days at least): Recovery and beyond—Wuhan is fully recovered. Is it so? We will not be fully recovered from this situation. Rather Corona will be accepted by the community. The scientist will find some cure in a limited scope or in a trial and error stage. The death rate will be reduced but one or two news will be always as usual. We will see inflation rate is high, the consumption of the fashion industry will be dropped, and the unemployment rate will increase.
More specifically service industry will be recovered up to 80% level. Mid-level manufacturing organizations where the fixed cost ratio is 70% plus will be suffered a lot. Garments and Textile industry particularly woven manufactures (8 to 20 lines manufacturing process) where investment level between USD 0.12 Million and USD 0.6 Million will be in high risk in cash flow, orders and working capital.
Positive is news that small-scale organizations who are fulfilling the demand of online shops, who can adjust the production process with the various demand and styles will do well in the shortage of supply chain in Europe and USA market.
Digital marketing, online shops, online delivery, and technological-based service industry like Food and education will be in increasing trend after the second phase. The employment rate in the digital commutation will be increased. To a big extent physical marketing, door to door marketing will be replaced by online marketing and campaign.
For examples:
Sports Industry:
Britain is set to unveil a crisis plan for football that will keep all Premier League matches played behind closed doors as the country battles the outbreak of the coronavirus.
Food & Beverage Industry:
Rochester breweries, restaurants get creative after the half capacity mandate. They will assure the public that dining out is safe and show they’re taking all the precautions to create an inviting atmosphere.
“We’re talking about a phone-to-text system, where somebody can pull into the parking lot and we’ll run their food out to them,” McDonald said. “It’s not the end of the world, but it’s definitely a time to reassess how we’re doing things. I look at it as a potential opportunity to innovate.”
ATIC Industry:
We will not be surprised to see Industry should lobby for new ‘coronavirus clear’ certificates!!! (New business opportunity for leading ATIC company).
Where is plan B?
As business owners, decision-makers, and senior management, we need to think about what would be our offerings, what extent we will offer, and when we will offer them? Finance leaders need to breakdown down the cash flow arrangements from the next 15 days to 90 days basis, set the optimum balance between fixed vs variable cost and other financial parameters. But it should not be wise to cut costs drastically.
Financial institutions, payment makers (Account Receivables) of your business, and different sources of fundraisers may be reacted sensitively right now. Give some time here. You may start to see things are changing in a positive way. But to me, I will suggest doing a short plan from 15 days to 45 days. Within this period, you will see some sunshine surely
This is the challenging and playing time for marketers and salesman. I must say this is the proving time as well. What would be the plan as the demand level is dropped significantly, customers are fit not psychologically. This situation is even worst for field-level salespeople as they can get out and meet the customer.
If we see the event phase by phase, we may find some ways and actions to do. For example, within the next 15 days, the marketer’s main motto will be to stay in prospects’ mind rather than push selling. Now the point is how we are going to do it. Statistically, we have seen our prospects are spending increasing time on social medial marketing and in the online platforms. They are very interested in #Corona #Covid-19 #buyerdropped #Layoff issues and news. We could use the opportunities and interest and make some video, news, e-mail with better content like CSR activity during the time, positive news related to Corona protection arrangement by our organizations, Govt. and community. Also we can share some post on role model and leaders who had shown real courage in crisis time like this. It may help to motivate our peer groups and increase our market coverage.
Please note that you have to do all the actions of visibility from the viewpoint of real well beings and due care. It cannot be just for showing. Because your digital footprint and shadow of your current activity will be crossed checked and published in the event after. Better make a team on public communications and select content and media and use the power of digital marketing through every paid and organic channel.
Remember this is the time to bounce back and not to get trapped in worries. Think and find alternatives. If you do not have regular orders, look for online platforms, if you are a restaurant, arrange online delivery system through limited scope, if you are lawyer or dentist or eye specialist or consultants or trainers, use online platform.
Even help day to day labors, paper delivery man, small scale service provider like electrician, carpenters and plumbers by giving reusable PPE and sanitizers so that they can work and continue their livelihood.
Also note that you have to see the situation phase by phase and plan our actions accordingly, but get ready your team and family that Corona may not be going to leave us quickly.
Stay Safe.